![]() ![]() imposed sanctions against leaders of ISIS-ISCAP and counterparts in ASWJ as terrorists.Ĭounter-terrorist experts believe that ASWJ which is also locally known as ‘Al Shabab’ (‘Ansar al-Sunna’ or simply as ‘ mashababos’)has mostly homegrown origins. ASWJ has also accused the ruling FRELIMO Party in Mozambique of corruption. ASWJ publicly committed to applying Sharia Law as agents of a “government of God”, like ISIS in the Middle East and the Al Shabab militia in Somalia. Their fighting strength is believed to be around 2,000 in Cabo Delgado province. Significance of Transnational Extremist Threat- Already in July 2019, the ASWJ insurgents pledged allegiance to the ISIS branch in Central Africa ISCAP which operates in Congo DRC. There is testimony accusing security company employees of indiscriminate violence. In northern Mozambique, these para-military actions have drawn strong criticism from human rights organizations such as Amnesty International. Security governance is further complicated by Mozambique’s reliance on private military and security firms (PMCs/ PSCs), including from Russia and South Africa (Wagner Group, Dyck Advisory Group/DAG) which failed to rout the Jihadists. Anti-terror legislation was adopted only in 2018 when the insurgency already began to make itself strongly felt. Reforms in Mozambique’s security sector have been incomplete since the end of the civil war 1977-1992, which has debilitated the army in front line roles against violent extremists. However, the recent SADC troika summit meeting on 8-9 April devoted to regional security challenges remained inconclusive. The SADC regional block started to deliberate about a joint security response in late 2020. However, Mozambique has been adamant against foreign troop deployments, in keeping with its non-aligned tradition and to safeguard national sovereignty. The EU has stepped up planning for a possible EU Military Mission to assist the government, after the SADC neighboring states fielded a recent assessment. The US and former colonial power Portugal have recently agreed to provide trainers for Mozambican forces. There has also been a growing readiness to accept foreign military advisers and trainers, while local militia groups were used in parallel. Mozambique and Tanzania concluded an agreement to form a joint defense and security committee in mid-January 2021 for the purpose of intelligence sharing and coordination. In 2020, the government took steps to reorganize its security posture in Cabo Delgado and created a joint task force against the terrorists. Government Response-The government struggled to keep the insurgency at bay after initial denial of the problem. The fighting has caused2,800 casualties so far, reportedly more than half of them civilians, according to ACLED humanitarian statistics. The humanitarian fallout from the fighting is catastrophic:700,000 persons are displaced and around a quarter of the provincial population. ![]() Experts estimate that currently some 60% of sub-districts in the province are no longer under effective government control. As a result, the leading energy firm involved in the gas project, Total Company of France, stopped operations and withdrew its personnel from the area. The complex attack on 25 March against the densely populated city of Palma targeted a staging area for the large offshore gas development project. In August 2020, insurgents took control of Mocimboa da Praia town on the northern coast. In the last two years, the Jihadist insurgency of “Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jama” (ASWJ) has gained momentum beyond rural areas. In a new paradigm of partnership with the government, joined-up cooperation, including withfuture gas customers across the Indian Ocean could buttress the response to the escalating violence.Ĭonflict Trajectory- Armed violence has steadily escalated in Cabo Delgado province of northern Mozambique since 2017. In view of escalating violence, it is time for the international response to shift gears and invest in peacebuilding besides counter-insurgency assistance and security sector reforms, including for regulating the activity of private military and security companies. Extremists aligned with ISIS are emplacing an ecosystem for transnational illegal activity- just as the major gas project development can bring real peace dividends to the impoverished province. Large offshore gas deposits act as an additional driver of conflict while peacebuilding initiatives are still at the very beginning. Armed conflict with Jihadist extremists is exacerbated by privatized security forces and a lack of tangible regional solidarity and security coordination. Abstract: Cabo Delgado, once heartland of the Mozambican national liberation struggle, is turning into an epicenter of conflict and instability, which threatens neighboring countries and regional stability. ![]()
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